League One · Matchday Regular Season - 6Played

Stevenage – Luton prediction

Stevenage2 – 1Luton

Kick-off September 10, 2026 at 9:00 PMAt SPORTA Arena

The model's call

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The match has been played, but the call stays masked here: a forfait is for reading it before kick-off, not for reading it back afterwards. The verdict for this fixture and the call behind it are published in full on the record, which is open to everybody. Everything the call was built from is already below: the probability the model gives, the price that probability is worth and the goals expected from each side.

Probability
82%
Fair price
1.23
Expected goals
1.51 – 1.22

Recorded on September 10, 2026 at 4:00 AM, before kick-off. The figures on this page are the ones it was frozen with, never recomputed afterwards.

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What the data says

The same figures the model reads for this match, published ahead of it.

Current form

Each team's last 5 matches, all competitions

Stevenage
3W · 1D · 1L
WLWWD
10/15
Points taken
1.60
Goals scored
0.60
Goals conceded
  1. WWinHWigan1 – 0
  2. LDefeatALeyton Orie…0 – 1
  3. WWinHLuton2 – 1
  4. WWinABarnsley5 – 1
  5. DDrawAPeterboro0 – 0
Luton
2W · 1D · 2L
WLLDW
7/15
Points taken
1.60
Goals scored
1.00
Goals conceded
  1. WWinAWycombe4 – 1
  2. LDefeatHBradford0 – 1
  3. LDefeatAStevenage1 – 2
  4. DDrawHLeyton Orie…1 – 1
  5. WWinHStockport2 – 0

Head-to-head

3 meetings · League One

2
Stevenage wins
0
Draws
1
Luton wins
2.7
Goals per match
67 %
Over 2.5
  1. Sep 10, 26League One
    Stevenage2 – 1Luton
  2. Jan 10, 26League One
    Luton2 – 1Stevenage
  3. Oct 4, 25League One
    Stevenage2 – 0Luton

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