Primeira Liga · Matchday Regular Season - 7Played

Sp Lisbon – Arouca prediction

Sp Lisbon2 – 2Arouca

Kick-off September 19, 2026 at 9:30 PMAt Estádio José Alvalade

The model's call

The call is for subscribers

The match has been played, but the call stays masked here: a forfait is for reading it before kick-off, not for reading it back afterwards. The verdict for this fixture and the call behind it are published in full on the record, which is open to everybody. Everything the call was built from is already below: the probability the model gives, the price that probability is worth and the goals expected from each side.

Probability
80%
Fair price
1.24
Expected goals
2.26 – 0.91

Recorded on September 17, 2026 at 10:00 PM, before kick-off. The figures on this page are the ones it was frozen with, never recomputed afterwards.

See how this call ended
Subscribe to get the calls before the matchSee the plansAlready subscribed? Open it in the app

What the data says

The same figures the model reads for this match, published ahead of it.

Current form

Each team's last 5 matches, all competitions

Sp Lisbon
3W · 2D · 0L
WDDWW
11/15
Points taken
2.40
Goals scored
0.80
Goals conceded
  1. WWinASp Braga3 – 1
  2. DDrawHArouca2 – 2
  3. DDrawAFamalicao1 – 1
  4. WWinHNacional2 – 0
  5. WWinARio Ave4 – 0
Arouca
2W · 2D · 1L
WDLDW
8/15
Points taken
1.20
Goals scored
1.00
Goals conceded
  1. WWinHEstrela1 – 0
  2. DDrawASp Lisbon2 – 2
  3. LDefeatHSanta Clara1 – 2
  4. DDrawAEstoril0 – 0
  5. WWinHMaritimo2 – 1

Head-to-head

5 meetings · Primeira Liga

3
Sp Lisbon wins
2
Draws
0
Arouca wins
4.0
Goals per match
100 %
Over 2.5
  1. Sep 19, 26Primeira Liga
    Sp Lisbon2 – 2Arouca
  2. Jan 24, 26Primeira Liga
    Arouca1 – 2Sp Lisbon
  3. Aug 17, 25Primeira Liga
    Sp Lisbon6 – 0Arouca
  4. Feb 15, 25Primeira Liga
    Sp Lisbon2 – 2Arouca
  5. Sep 13, 24Primeira Liga
    Arouca0 – 3Sp Lisbon

Send this match to someone

The link opens this exact page: both teams’ form, their head-to-head record, and the model’s call once it is frozen.

How this model is kept, and checkable

1,711 calls have been settled so far. Every one of them was recorded before its kick-off and its verdict written after the whistle, wins and losses alike — nothing is taken down afterwards. The full record, match by match, is public.

See the full record

Next up in Primeira Liga

See every upcoming match

This match already has a call waiting

An account is enough to see the days ahead; a subscription opens the call itself, on this match and on every other one.

Create an accountSee the plans