Primeira Liga · Matchday Regular Season - 8Played

Rio Ave – Nacional prediction

Rio Ave3 – 2Nacional

Kick-off October 11, 2026 at 4:30 PMAt Estádio dos Arcos

The model's call

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The match has been played, but the call stays masked here: a forfait is for reading it before kick-off, not for reading it back afterwards. The verdict for this fixture and the call behind it are published in full on the record, which is open to everybody. Everything the call was built from is already below: the probability the model gives, the price that probability is worth and the goals expected from each side.

Probability
80%
Fair price
1.25
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.25

Recorded on October 9, 2026 at 5:00 PM, before kick-off. The figures on this page are the ones it was frozen with, never recomputed afterwards.

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What the data says

The same figures the model reads for this match, published ahead of it.

Current form

Each team's last 5 matches, all competitions

Rio Ave
1W · 1D · 3L
WLDLL
4/15
Points taken
1.20
Goals scored
2.80
Goals conceded
  1. WWinHNacional3 – 2
  2. LDefeatAAlverca0 – 1
  3. DDrawHEstrela3 – 3
  4. LDefeatASanta Clara0 – 4
  5. LDefeatHSp Lisbon0 – 4
Nacional
0W · 0D · 5L
LLLLL
0/15
Points taken
1.00
Goals scored
3.00
Goals conceded
  1. LDefeatARio Ave2 – 3
  2. LDefeatHFamalicao0 – 4
  3. LDefeatHAlverca1 – 3
  4. LDefeatASp Lisbon0 – 2
  5. LDefeatHEstrela2 – 3

Head-to-head

5 meetings · Primeira Liga

2
Rio Ave wins
2
Draws
1
Nacional wins
4.0
Goals per match
80 %
Over 2.5
  1. Oct 11, 26Primeira Liga
    Rio Ave3 – 2Nacional
  2. Jan 25, 26Primeira Liga
    Nacional4 – 0Rio Ave
  3. Aug 17, 25Primeira Liga
    Rio Ave1 – 1Nacional
  4. May 10, 25Primeira Liga
    Nacional3 – 3Rio Ave
  5. Dec 29, 24Primeira Liga
    Rio Ave2 – 1Nacional

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