Primeira Liga · Matchday Regular Season - 6Played

Rio Ave – Estrela prediction

Rio Ave3 – 3Estrela

Kick-off September 14, 2026 at 7:45 PMAt Estádio do Rio Ave FC

The model's call

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The match has been played, but the call stays masked here: a forfait is for reading it before kick-off, not for reading it back afterwards. The verdict for this fixture and the call behind it are published in full on the record, which is open to everybody. Everything the call was built from is already below: the probability the model gives, the price that probability is worth and the goals expected from each side.

Probability
81%
Fair price
1.24
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.41

Recorded on September 12, 2026 at 8:00 PM, before kick-off. The figures on this page are the ones it was frozen with, never recomputed afterwards.

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What the data says

The same figures the model reads for this match, published ahead of it.

Current form

Each team's last 5 matches, all competitions

Rio Ave
1W · 1D · 3L
WLDLL
4/15
Points taken
1.20
Goals scored
2.80
Goals conceded
  1. WWinHNacional3 – 2
  2. LDefeatAAlverca0 – 1
  3. DDrawHEstrela3 – 3
  4. LDefeatASanta Clara0 – 4
  5. LDefeatHSp Lisbon0 – 4
Estrela
1W · 2D · 2L
LLDWD
5/15
Points taken
1.40
Goals scored
1.80
Goals conceded
  1. LDefeatAArouca0 – 1
  2. LDefeatHAcademico V…0 – 2
  3. DDrawARio Ave3 – 3
  4. WWinHSp Braga2 – 1
  5. DDrawHFamalicao2 – 2

Head-to-head

5 meetings · Primeira Liga

3
Rio Ave wins
1
Draws
1
Estrela wins
3.0
Goals per match
60 %
Over 2.5
  1. Sep 14, 26Primeira Liga
    Rio Ave3 – 3Estrela
  2. Mar 15, 26Primeira Liga
    Rio Ave2 – 1Estrela
  3. Oct 25, 25Primeira Liga
    Estrela1 – 2Rio Ave
  4. May 5, 25Primeira Liga
    Rio Ave2 – 0Estrela
  5. Dec 23, 24Primeira Liga
    Estrela1 – 0Rio Ave

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