Veikkausliiga · Matchday Relegation Group - 26Played

Mariehamn – Ilves prediction

Mariehamn1 – 1Ilves

Kick-off October 10, 2026 at 6:00 PMAt Wiklöf Holding Arena

The model's call

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The match has been played, but the call stays masked here: a forfait is for reading it before kick-off, not for reading it back afterwards. The verdict for this fixture and the call behind it are published in full on the record, which is open to everybody. Everything the call was built from is already below: the probability the model gives, the price that probability is worth and the goals expected from each side.

Probability
82%
Fair price
1.22
Expected goals
1.48 – 2.04

Recorded on October 8, 2026 at 6:00 PM, before kick-off. The figures on this page are the ones it was frozen with, never recomputed afterwards.

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What the data says

The same figures the model reads for this match, published ahead of it.

Current form

Each team's last 5 matches, all competitions

Mariehamn
2W · 1D · 2L
DLWLW
7/15
Points taken
1.20
Goals scored
1.00
Goals conceded
  1. DDrawHIlves1 – 1
  2. LDefeatASJK1 – 2
  3. WWinHTPS1 – 0
  4. LDefeatALahti1 – 2
  5. WWinHJaro2 – 0
Ilves
3W · 1D · 1L
DWWWL
10/15
Points taken
2.00
Goals scored
0.80
Goals conceded
  1. DDrawAMariehamn1 – 1
  2. WWinATPS3 – 0
  3. WWinHLahti3 – 1
  4. WWinHJaro2 – 0
  5. LDefeatHHJK1 – 2

Head-to-head

7 meetings · Veikkausliiga

1
Mariehamn wins
2
Draws
4
Ilves wins
2.7
Goals per match
43 %
Over 2.5
  1. Oct 10, 26Veikkausliiga
    Mariehamn1 – 1Ilves
  2. Aug 9, 26Veikkausliiga
    Ilves2 – 0Mariehamn
  3. Apr 18, 26Veikkausliiga
    Mariehamn2 – 2Ilves
  4. Aug 31, 25Veikkausliiga
    Ilves2 – 1Mariehamn
  5. Apr 27, 25Veikkausliiga
    Mariehamn3 – 2Ilves
  6. Aug 11, 24Veikkausliiga
    Ilves2 – 0Mariehamn
  7. Apr 28, 24Veikkausliiga
    Mariehamn0 – 1Ilves

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