Eredivisie · Matchday Regular Season - 4Played

Excelsior – Sparta Rotterdam prediction

Excelsior2 – 1Sparta Rotterdam

Kick-off August 29, 2026 at 4:30 PMAt Stadion Woudestein

The model's call

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The match has been played, but the call stays masked here: a forfait is for reading it before kick-off, not for reading it back afterwards. The verdict for this fixture and the call behind it are published in full on the record, which is open to everybody. Everything the call was built from is already below: the probability the model gives, the price that probability is worth and the goals expected from each side.

Probability
80%
Fair price
1.25
Expected goals
1.84 – 1.20

Recorded on August 27, 2026 at 5:00 PM, before kick-off. The figures on this page are the ones it was frozen with, never recomputed afterwards.

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What the data says

The same figures the model reads for this match, published ahead of it.

Current form

Each team's last 5 matches, all competitions

Excelsior
1W · 2D · 2L
LDLDW
5/15
Points taken
1.80
Goals scored
2.20
Goals conceded
  1. LDefeatHGroningen1 – 5
  2. DDrawAAjax2 – 2
  3. LDefeatHUtrecht1 – 2
  4. DDrawANijmegen2 – 2
  5. WWinAWillem II3 – 0
Sparta Rotterdam
1W · 2D · 2L
WDLLD
5/15
Points taken
1.80
Goals scored
3.00
Goals conceded
  1. WWinHWillem II3 – 2
  2. DDrawAGo Ahead Ea…3 – 3
  3. LDefeatHHeerenveen0 – 4
  4. LDefeatAPSV Eindhov…1 – 4
  5. DDrawHZwolle2 – 2

Head-to-head

3 meetings · Eredivisie

2
Excelsior wins
0
Draws
1
Sparta Rott… wins
3.0
Goals per match
67 %
Over 2.5
  1. Aug 29, 26Eredivisie
    Excelsior2 – 1Sparta Rott…
  2. May 17, 26Eredivisie
    Sparta Rott…2 – 3Excelsior
  3. Sep 14, 25Eredivisie
    Excelsior0 – 1Sparta Rott…

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