Championship · Matchday Regular Season - 3Played

Derby – Swansea prediction

Derby0 – 3Swansea

Kick-off August 29, 2026 at 1:30 PMAt Pride Park

The model's call

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The match has been played, but the call stays masked here: a forfait is for reading it before kick-off, not for reading it back afterwards. The verdict for this fixture and the call behind it are published in full on the record, which is open to everybody. Everything the call was built from is already below: the probability the model gives, the price that probability is worth and the goals expected from each side.

Probability
78%
Fair price
1.28
Expected goals
1.51 – 0.97

Recorded on August 27, 2026 at 2:00 PM, before kick-off. The figures on this page are the ones it was frozen with, never recomputed afterwards.

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What the data says

The same figures the model reads for this match, published ahead of it.

Current form

Each team's last 5 matches, all competitions

Derby
0W · 2D · 3L
LDDLL
2/15
Points taken
0.80
Goals scored
1.80
Goals conceded
  1. LDefeatAQPR1 – 4
  2. DDrawHWrexham1 – 1
  3. DDrawABurnley1 – 1
  4. LDefeatHBirmingham1 – 2
  5. LDefeatHWest Brom0 – 1
Swansea
4W · 0D · 1L
WWWWL
12/15
Points taken
1.80
Goals scored
1.20
Goals conceded
  1. WWinAMillwall1 – 0
  2. WWinHNorwich2 – 1
  3. WWinALincoln2 – 1
  4. WWinHBurnley3 – 1
  5. LDefeatASouthampton1 – 3

Head-to-head

5 meetings · Championship

2
Derby wins
0
Draws
3
Swansea wins
2.4
Goals per match
60 %
Over 2.5
  1. Aug 29, 26Championship
    Derby0 – 3Swansea
  2. Feb 14, 26Championship
    Derby2 – 0Swansea
  3. Nov 25, 25Championship
    Swansea1 – 2Derby
  4. Apr 5, 25Championship
    Swansea1 – 0Derby
  5. Nov 27, 24Championship
    Derby1 – 2Swansea

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