Austrian Bundesliga · Matchday Regular Season - 7Played

Salzburg – Sturm Graz prediction

Salzburg3 – 0Sturm Graz

Kick-off September 20, 2026 at 5:00 PMAt Red Bull Arena

The model's call

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The match has been played, but the call stays masked here: a forfait is for reading it before kick-off, not for reading it back afterwards. The verdict for this fixture and the call behind it are published in full on the record, which is open to everybody. Everything the call was built from is already below: the probability the model gives, the price that probability is worth and the goals expected from each side.

Probability
80%
Fair price
1.25
Expected goals
1.60 – 1.04

Recorded on September 18, 2026 at 5:00 PM, before kick-off. The figures on this page are the ones it was frozen with, never recomputed afterwards.

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What the data says

The same figures the model reads for this match, published ahead of it.

Current form

Each team's last 5 matches, all competitions

Salzburg
3W · 2D · 0L
DWDWW
11/15
Points taken
2.60
Goals scored
0.60
Goals conceded
  1. DDrawAGrazer AK0 – 0
  2. WWinHSturm Graz3 – 0
  3. DDrawARied1 – 1
  4. WWinHSK Rapid5 – 1
  5. WWinHAustria Vie…4 – 1
Sturm Graz
2W · 1D · 2L
WLWLD
7/15
Points taken
1.20
Goals scored
1.60
Goals conceded
  1. WWinAAustria Vie…2 – 0
  2. LDefeatASalzburg0 – 3
  3. WWinHLASK2 – 1
  4. LDefeatASK Rapid1 – 3
  5. DDrawHA. Lustenau1 – 1

Head-to-head

9 meetings · Bundesliga autrichienne

2
Salzburg wins
3
Draws
4
Sturm Graz wins
3.2
Goals per match
56 %
Over 2.5
  1. Sep 20, 26Bundesliga autrichienne
    Salzburg3 – 0Sturm Graz
  2. May 3, 26Bundesliga autrichienne
    Salzburg1 – 1Sturm Graz
  3. Mar 20, 26Bundesliga autrichienne
    Sturm Graz1 – 1Salzburg
  4. Nov 9, 25Bundesliga autrichienne
    Sturm Graz1 – 1Salzburg
  5. Sep 20, 25Bundesliga autrichienne
    Salzburg0 – 2Sturm Graz
  6. May 9, 25Bundesliga autrichienne
    Sturm Graz4 – 2Salzburg
  7. Apr 13, 25Bundesliga autrichienne
    Salzburg1 – 2Sturm Graz
  8. Mar 2, 25Bundesliga autrichienne
    Salzburg3 – 1Sturm Graz
  9. Oct 6, 24Bundesliga autrichienne
    Sturm Graz5 – 0Salzburg

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