Primeira Liga · Matchday Regular Season - 7Played

Guimaraes – Moreirense prediction

Guimaraes1 – 1Moreirense

Kick-off September 20, 2026 at 4:30 PMAt Estádio D. Afonso Henriques

The model's call

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The match has been played, but the call stays masked here: a forfait is for reading it before kick-off, not for reading it back afterwards. The verdict for this fixture and the call behind it are published in full on the record, which is open to everybody. Everything the call was built from is already below: the probability the model gives, the price that probability is worth and the goals expected from each side.

Probability
78%
Fair price
1.28
Expected goals
1.38 – 0.99

Recorded on September 18, 2026 at 5:00 PM, before kick-off. The figures on this page are the ones it was frozen with, never recomputed afterwards.

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What the data says

The same figures the model reads for this match, published ahead of it.

Current form

Each team's last 5 matches, all competitions

Guimaraes
0W · 2D · 3L
LDLDL
2/15
Points taken
0.40
Goals scored
1.20
Goals conceded
  1. LDefeatABenfica0 – 2
  2. DDrawHMoreirense1 – 1
  3. LDefeatAAcademico V…1 – 2
  4. DDrawHCasa Pia0 – 0
  5. LDefeatASp Braga0 – 1
Moreirense
1W · 1D · 3L
LDWLL
4/15
Points taken
1.00
Goals scored
1.80
Goals conceded
  1. LDefeatHGil Vicente0 – 1
  2. DDrawAGuimaraes1 – 1
  3. WWinHMaritimo3 – 1
  4. LDefeatHBenfica0 – 4
  5. LDefeatAPorto1 – 2

Head-to-head

5 meetings · Primeira Liga

2
Guimaraes wins
2
Draws
1
Moreirense wins
2.0
Goals per match
20 %
Over 2.5
  1. Sep 20, 26Primeira Liga
    Guimaraes1 – 1Moreirense
  2. Jan 30, 26Primeira Liga
    Guimaraes1 – 0Moreirense
  3. Aug 23, 25Primeira Liga
    Moreirense2 – 0Guimaraes
  4. Mar 30, 25Primeira Liga
    Moreirense2 – 2Guimaraes
  5. Nov 3, 24Primeira Liga
    Guimaraes1 – 0Moreirense

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