Primeira Liga · Matchday Regular Season - 6Played

Casa Pia – Porto prediction

Casa Pia1 – 4Porto

Kick-off September 12, 2026 at 7:00 PM

The model's call

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The match has been played, but the call stays masked here: a forfait is for reading it before kick-off, not for reading it back afterwards. The verdict for this fixture and the call behind it are published in full on the record, which is open to everybody. Everything the call was built from is already below: the probability the model gives, the price that probability is worth and the goals expected from each side.

Probability
79%
Fair price
1.26
Expected goals
0.70 – 1.61

Recorded on September 10, 2026 at 7:00 PM, before kick-off. The figures on this page are the ones it was frozen with, never recomputed afterwards.

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What the data says

The same figures the model reads for this match, published ahead of it.

Current form

Each team's last 5 matches, all competitions

Casa Pia
1W · 1D · 3L
LWLDL
4/15
Points taken
0.60
Goals scored
1.40
Goals conceded
  1. LDefeatHSanta Clara0 – 1
  2. WWinAEstoril2 – 1
  3. LDefeatHPorto1 – 4
  4. DDrawAGuimaraes0 – 0
  5. LDefeatHMoreirense0 – 1
Porto
4W · 0D · 1L
LWWWW
12/15
Points taken
2.60
Goals scored
1.40
Goals conceded
  1. LDefeatABetis2 – 3
  2. WWinAMaritimo2 – 1
  3. WWinHBenfica3 – 1
  4. WWinACasa Pia4 – 1
  5. WWinHMoreirense2 – 1

Head-to-head

5 meetings · Primeira Liga

1
Casa Pia wins
0
Draws
4
Porto wins
3.0
Goals per match
60 %
Over 2.5
  1. Sep 12, 26Primeira Liga
    Casa Pia1 – 4Porto
  2. Feb 2, 26Primeira Liga
    Casa Pia2 – 1Porto
  3. Aug 24, 25Primeira Liga
    Porto4 – 0Casa Pia
  4. Apr 12, 25Primeira Liga
    Casa Pia0 – 1Porto
  5. Dec 2, 24Primeira Liga
    Porto2 – 0Casa Pia

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