Primeira Liga · Matchday Regular Season - 5Played

Porto – Moreirense prediction

Porto2 – 1Moreirense

Kick-off September 4, 2026 at 9:15 PMAt Estádio do Dragão

The model's call

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The match has been played, but the call stays masked here: a forfait is for reading it before kick-off, not for reading it back afterwards. The verdict for this fixture and the call behind it are published in full on the record, which is open to everybody. Everything the call was built from is already below: the probability the model gives, the price that probability is worth and the goals expected from each side.

Probability
81%
Fair price
1.23
Expected goals
1.94 – 0.56

Recorded on September 2, 2026 at 10:00 PM, before kick-off. The figures on this page are the ones it was frozen with, never recomputed afterwards.

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What the data says

The same figures the model reads for this match, published ahead of it.

Current form

Each team's last 5 matches, all competitions

Porto
4W · 0D · 1L
LWWWW
12/15
Points taken
2.60
Goals scored
1.40
Goals conceded
  1. LDefeatABetis2 – 3
  2. WWinAMaritimo2 – 1
  3. WWinHBenfica3 – 1
  4. WWinACasa Pia4 – 1
  5. WWinHMoreirense2 – 1
Moreirense
1W · 1D · 3L
LDWLL
4/15
Points taken
1.00
Goals scored
1.80
Goals conceded
  1. LDefeatHGil Vicente0 – 1
  2. DDrawAGuimaraes1 – 1
  3. WWinHMaritimo3 – 1
  4. LDefeatHBenfica0 – 4
  5. LDefeatAPorto1 – 2

Head-to-head

5 meetings · Primeira Liga

5
Porto wins
0
Draws
0
Moreirense wins
3.2
Goals per match
100 %
Over 2.5
  1. Sep 4, 26Primeira Liga
    Porto2 – 1Moreirense
  2. Mar 15, 26Primeira Liga
    Porto3 – 0Moreirense
  3. Oct 27, 25Primeira Liga
    Moreirense1 – 2Porto
  4. May 2, 25Primeira Liga
    Porto3 – 1Moreirense
  5. Dec 21, 24Primeira Liga
    Moreirense0 – 3Porto

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