Primeira Liga · Matchday Regular Season - 5Played

Estoril – Arouca prediction

Estoril0 – 0Arouca

Kick-off September 7, 2026 at 9:15 PMAt Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota

The model's call

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The match has been played, but the call stays masked here: a forfait is for reading it before kick-off, not for reading it back afterwards. The verdict for this fixture and the call behind it are published in full on the record, which is open to everybody. Everything the call was built from is already below: the probability the model gives, the price that probability is worth and the goals expected from each side.

Probability
81%
Fair price
1.23
Expected goals
1.54 – 1.39

Recorded on September 5, 2026 at 10:00 PM, before kick-off. The figures on this page are the ones it was frozen with, never recomputed afterwards.

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What the data says

The same figures the model reads for this match, published ahead of it.

Current form

Each team's last 5 matches, all competitions

Estoril
0W · 1D · 4L
LLLDL
1/15
Points taken
0.60
Goals scored
1.40
Goals conceded
  1. LDefeatAAcademico V…1 – 2
  2. LDefeatHCasa Pia1 – 2
  3. LDefeatASp Braga0 – 1
  4. DDrawHArouca0 – 0
  5. LDefeatABenfica1 – 2
Arouca
2W · 2D · 1L
WDLDW
8/15
Points taken
1.20
Goals scored
1.00
Goals conceded
  1. WWinHEstrela1 – 0
  2. DDrawASp Lisbon2 – 2
  3. LDefeatHSanta Clara1 – 2
  4. DDrawAEstoril0 – 0
  5. WWinHMaritimo2 – 1

Head-to-head

5 meetings · Primeira Liga

2
Estoril wins
2
Draws
1
Arouca wins
3.8
Goals per match
60 %
Over 2.5
  1. Sep 7, 26Primeira Liga
    Estoril0 – 0Arouca
  2. Apr 6, 26Primeira Liga
    Arouca3 – 2Estoril
  3. Nov 7, 25Primeira Liga
    Estoril4 – 3Arouca
  4. Mar 16, 25Primeira Liga
    Arouca1 – 1Estoril
  5. Oct 26, 24Primeira Liga
    Estoril4 – 1Arouca

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