Primeira Liga · Matchday Regular Season - 8Played

Benfica – Guimaraes prediction

Benfica2 – 0Guimaraes

Kick-off October 11, 2026 at 7:00 PMAt Estádio da Luz

The model's call

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The match has been played, but the call stays masked here: a forfait is for reading it before kick-off, not for reading it back afterwards. The verdict for this fixture and the call behind it are published in full on the record, which is open to everybody. Everything the call was built from is already below: the probability the model gives, the price that probability is worth and the goals expected from each side.

Probability
82%
Fair price
1.22
Expected goals
2.28 – 0.82

Recorded on October 9, 2026 at 7:00 PM, before kick-off. The figures on this page are the ones it was frozen with, never recomputed afterwards.

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What the data says

The same figures the model reads for this match, published ahead of it.

Current form

Each team's last 5 matches, all competitions

Benfica
4W · 0D · 1L
WLWWW
12/15
Points taken
2.60
Goals scored
0.80
Goals conceded
  1. WWinHGuimaraes2 – 0
  2. LDefeatAPorto1 – 3
  3. WWinHGil Vicente3 – 1
  4. WWinAMoreirense4 – 0
  5. WWinAMaritimo3 – 0
Guimaraes
0W · 2D · 3L
LDLDL
2/15
Points taken
0.40
Goals scored
1.20
Goals conceded
  1. LDefeatABenfica0 – 2
  2. DDrawHMoreirense1 – 1
  3. LDefeatAAcademico V…1 – 2
  4. DDrawHCasa Pia0 – 0
  5. LDefeatASp Braga0 – 1

Head-to-head

5 meetings · Primeira Liga

5
Benfica wins
0
Draws
0
Guimaraes wins
2.4
Goals per match
60 %
Over 2.5
  1. Oct 11, 26Primeira Liga
    Benfica2 – 0Guimaraes
  2. Mar 21, 26Primeira Liga
    Benfica3 – 0Guimaraes
  3. Nov 1, 25Primeira Liga
    Guimaraes0 – 3Benfica
  4. Apr 19, 25Primeira Liga
    Guimaraes0 – 3Benfica
  5. Dec 7, 24Primeira Liga
    Benfica1 – 0Guimaraes

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