Primeira Liga · Matchday Regular Season - 8Played

Arouca – Estrela prediction

Arouca1 – 0Estrela

Kick-off October 11, 2026 at 9:30 PMAt Estádio Municipal de Arouca

The model's call

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The match has been played, but the call stays masked here: a forfait is for reading it before kick-off, not for reading it back afterwards. The verdict for this fixture and the call behind it are published in full on the record, which is open to everybody. Everything the call was built from is already below: the probability the model gives, the price that probability is worth and the goals expected from each side.

Probability
79%
Fair price
1.27
Expected goals
1.66 – 1.26

Recorded on October 9, 2026 at 10:00 PM, before kick-off. The figures on this page are the ones it was frozen with, never recomputed afterwards.

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What the data says

The same figures the model reads for this match, published ahead of it.

Current form

Each team's last 5 matches, all competitions

Arouca
2W · 2D · 1L
WDLDW
8/15
Points taken
1.20
Goals scored
1.00
Goals conceded
  1. WWinHEstrela1 – 0
  2. DDrawASp Lisbon2 – 2
  3. LDefeatHSanta Clara1 – 2
  4. DDrawAEstoril0 – 0
  5. WWinHMaritimo2 – 1
Estrela
1W · 2D · 2L
LLDWD
5/15
Points taken
1.40
Goals scored
1.80
Goals conceded
  1. LDefeatAArouca0 – 1
  2. LDefeatHAcademico V…0 – 2
  3. DDrawARio Ave3 – 3
  4. WWinHSp Braga2 – 1
  5. DDrawHFamalicao2 – 2

Head-to-head

5 meetings · Primeira Liga

3
Arouca wins
0
Draws
2
Estrela wins
2.0
Goals per match
40 %
Over 2.5
  1. Oct 11, 26Primeira Liga
    Arouca1 – 0Estrela
  2. Apr 19, 26Primeira Liga
    Arouca1 – 0Estrela
  3. Dec 7, 25Primeira Liga
    Estrela3 – 1Arouca
  4. Apr 19, 25Primeira Liga
    Arouca1 – 0Estrela
  5. Dec 9, 24Primeira Liga
    Estrela2 – 1Arouca

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