LaLiga · Matchday Regular Season - 6Played

Alaves – Valencia prediction

Alaves0 – 1Valencia

Kick-off September 15, 2026 at 8:00 PMAt Estadio de Mendizorroza

The model's call

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The match has been played, but the call stays masked here: a forfait is for reading it before kick-off, not for reading it back afterwards. The verdict for this fixture and the call behind it are published in full on the record, which is open to everybody. Everything the call was built from is already below: the probability the model gives, the price that probability is worth and the goals expected from each side.

Probability
81%
Fair price
1.24
Expected goals
1.57 – 0.96

Recorded on September 13, 2026 at 8:00 PM, before kick-off. The figures on this page are the ones it was frozen with, never recomputed afterwards.

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What the data says

The same figures the model reads for this match, published ahead of it.

Current form

Each team's last 5 matches, all competitions

Alaves
0W · 1D · 4L
LLDLL
1/15
Points taken
0.60
Goals scored
1.40
Goals conceded
  1. LDefeatACelta1 – 2
  2. LDefeatHAth Madrid1 – 2
  3. DDrawAAth Bilbao0 – 0
  4. LDefeatHValencia0 – 1
  5. LDefeatASantander1 – 2
Valencia
1W · 2D · 2L
DDLWL
5/15
Points taken
1.00
Goals scored
1.20
Goals conceded
  1. DDrawHAth Bilbao0 – 0
  2. DDrawASantander2 – 2
  3. LDefeatHSociedad2 – 3
  4. WWinAAlaves1 – 0
  5. LDefeatASevilla0 – 1

Head-to-head

5 meetings · LaLiga

1
Alaves wins
2
Draws
2
Valencia wins
2.2
Goals per match
40 %
Over 2.5
  1. Sep 15, 26LaLiga
    Alaves0 – 1Valencia
  2. Mar 8, 26LaLiga
    Valencia3 – 2Alaves
  3. Oct 20, 25LaLiga
    Alaves0 – 0Valencia
  4. May 14, 25LaLiga
    Alaves1 – 0Valencia
  5. Dec 22, 24LaLiga
    Valencia2 – 2Alaves

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