Eredivisie · Matchday Regular Season - 5Played

Ajax – PSV Eindhoven prediction

Ajax1 – 3PSV Eindhoven

Kick-off September 5, 2026 at 8:00 PMAt Johan Cruijff Arena

The model's call

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The match has been played, but the call stays masked here: a forfait is for reading it before kick-off, not for reading it back afterwards. The verdict for this fixture and the call behind it are published in full on the record, which is open to everybody. Everything the call was built from is already below: the probability the model gives, the price that probability is worth and the goals expected from each side.

Probability
82%
Fair price
1.22
Expected goals
1.83 – 1.87

Recorded on September 3, 2026 at 8:00 PM, before kick-off. The figures on this page are the ones it was frozen with, never recomputed afterwards.

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What the data says

The same figures the model reads for this match, published ahead of it.

Current form

Each team's last 5 matches, all competitions

Ajax
3W · 2D · 0L
WDDWW
11/15
Points taken
3.60
Goals scored
1.40
Goals conceded
  1. WWinAGroningen5 – 2
  2. DDrawHNijmegen1 – 1
  3. DDrawHExcelsior2 – 2
  4. WWinHWillem II5 – 1
  5. WWinAFor Sittard5 – 1
PSV Eindhoven
4W · 0D · 1L
WLWWW
12/15
Points taken
3.40
Goals scored
1.20
Goals conceded
  1. WWinHHeerenveen2 – 0
  2. LDefeatATwente2 – 3
  3. WWinHSparta Rott…4 – 1
  4. WWinAAjax3 – 1
  5. WWinAUtrecht6 – 1

Head-to-head

5 meetings · Eredivisie

2
Ajax wins
2
Draws
1
PSV Eindhov… wins
3.8
Goals per match
80 %
Over 2.5
  1. Sep 5, 26Eredivisie
    Ajax1 – 3PSV Eindhov…
  2. May 2, 26Eredivisie
    Ajax2 – 2PSV Eindhov…
  3. Sep 21, 25Eredivisie
    PSV Eindhov…2 – 2Ajax
  4. Mar 30, 25Eredivisie
    PSV Eindhov…0 – 2Ajax
  5. Nov 2, 24Eredivisie
    Ajax3 – 2PSV Eindhov…

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